Turkish delusions and U.S.A.

Γράφει ο Τάσσος Συμεωνίδης
Ακαδημαικός Σύμβουλος

The Ottoman Empire should be cleaned up of the Armenians and the Lebanese. We have destroyed the former by the sword; we shall destroy the latter through starvation.

Enver Pasha

Consider the Koran, for example; this wretched book was sufficient to start a world - religion, to satisfy the metaphysical need of countless millions for twelve hundred years, to become the basis of their morality and of a remarkable contempt for death, and also to inspire them to bloody wars and the most extensive conquests. In this book we find the saddest and poorest form of theism. Much may be lost in translation, but I have not been able to discover in it one single idea of value.

Arthur Schopenhauer

“It is alleged that the American continent was discovered by Columbus in 1492. In fact, Muslim sailors reached the American continent 314 years before Columbus, in 1178. ...In his memoirs, Christopher Columbus mentions the exist
ence of a mosque atop a hill on the coast of Cuba.”

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Turkey is making ominous sounds again. What is Erdogan up to?
Those in the West who welcomed Erdogan’s ascension to power over ten years ago made a key mistake: they failed to “factor in” Erdogan’s Islamic obsessions. The Turkish autocrat was a careful player. Eager to deflect possible criticism of his ways by Western leaders he performed the role of the “enlightened democrat” well. His acting was accepted with a great sigh of relief in Western capitals. Here, they told us back then, we have a popular leader of a strategic Western “partner country” with a tangible commitment to turning Turkey into a model of democracy for the Islamic world.

What better outcome one could wish for?
Erdogan’s taking center stage coincided with the horrifying American awakening of 9/11. And Erdogan couldn’t imagine in his wildest dreams the knee-jerk Western reaction to the blood - stained realization that Islam (and not radical Islam or simply ‘terrorism’) was on the war path.
In the wake of the Twin Towers, Western leaders, with American politicians leading, outperformed each other in declaring that “we are not at war with Islam” when the exact opposite is true.
Prime minister, and later president, Erdogan had won his first decisive victory in the public forum
without even trying.
Ever since those heady days in the early 2000s, Erdogan knows no one in the West would dare associate his current dangerous expansionist maneuvers with his now flagrant virulent Islamism.
He is secure knowing that the West wears its politically correct dark spectacles and stubbornly refuses to see the clear and present danger: underestimating the strategic targets of the Islamic tide rising by way of illegal immigration and terrorism.
With Turkey experiencing serious domestic and external crises, Erdogan is trying to gain advantage with threats and neo-Ottoman grandstanding. He feels he has an upper hand with the “infidels.” He obviously believes he can push past all previous limits without significant opposition to his plans.

Would this “grandstanding” influence the illegal immigration agreement?
Let’s make one thing clear: this so-called agreement involves a prostrate Europe, wallowing in a politico - economic morass, and a Turkey confident she is holding a straight flush. A magnanimous Erdogan accepted what a pleading Mrs. Merkel tried to sell as a “solution” to her voters knowing full well he can pull the plug when he chooses with no tangible penalty.
To take this one step further, and contrary to what many in Brussels (and Berlin) believe, Erdogan cares little about the no visa travel question. When he holds his hand on the spigot of illegal Moslem immigration, he barely needs free traveling Turks in Europe to transplant the “truth” dictated by his deity in the land of the Unbelievers. Now as he is pursuing his enemies, real and imagined, with Stalinist poise, to stop what he believes is the Gulenist “threat” against his regime, he hardly wants to see free travel to Europe. How would he explain to his chanting devout Asiatic multitudes allowing potential traitorous secular Turks to use visa free travel to escape their due punishment at home?
Erdogan will continue to toy with the “pact” until he finds it not to his immediate strategic interest. For the time being, he is comfortable with seeing the waves of illegals take to Libya. But this condition may change at any moment as he wades deeper into his dangerous adventurism along the Syria-Iraq border and decides it is time to escalate his undeclared war against Europe as a counterweight.

How long can Erdogan continue to play this game? Already, there is dissatisfaction in European capitals and bells are ringing in NATO headquarters. There seems to be little room for Erdogan to exploit Western divisions and indecision.

That is not true. Erdogan has no immediate reason to fear a Western backlash. On the contrary, he gets bolder by the day. For the past several years he has been tightening his grip on his country in ways distant from a “democratic” model. He has manipulated elections to make sure he possesses a commanding majority. He has muzzled the press and imprisoned journalists. The July 2016 “coup” offered him the pretext to transition to full time suppression of any opposition.
He has eviscerated the Kemalists in the military. He constantly makes outrageous statements against Europe that refuses to recognize Turkish “rights” and Turkey’s “greatness.” In the summer of 2015, he showed how he can threaten European stability by using illegal immigration as a proxy war against the Unbelievers.
He has suffered in no way for his outlandish and threatening behavior. Despite his thinly - veiled support of Islamist terrorist groups in Syria, no one has touched him. Instead, Western “experts” are still wringing their hands on how to avoid “losing” Turkey --and Brussels and Berlin work overtime to devise new ways of appeasing him. Western dissatisfaction may increase but no one plans anything drastic against Erdogan’s dictatorial behavior at this moment.

Should Greece be truly worried?
Greece should always be truly worried about Turkey. Erdogan’s presence at the helm is hardly any guarantee of stability. Many Greek “experts” continue to argue though that Erdogan has been “better” than his predecessors in working with, and not against, Greece. Looking at the record leaves little room for entertaining such “feel-good” theories. For those who study (and remember) history, Erdogan appears to borrow freely from the book of past dictators. He must have studied European history of the 1930s well and learned from what Germany did to her neighbors en route to triggering the Second World War. Just like in those days, European leaders, caught in the funk of their deteriorating bloc beset by crawling economies, Moslem throngs, and Islamic terror, are procrastinators and appeasers.
Greece has lost her sovereignty, has jesters for leaders, and remains hostage to the creditors. With a shattered economy and a society in crisis, her defense capabilities have deteriorated. Lack of funding has undermined the quality and readiness of weapon systems. In case of trouble in the Aegean, Greece has thin hopes of getting tangible support from her “allies” in the form of provisions for war.
In the “best” case scenario, a Turkish attack may unfold as NATO, the European “dis-Union,” the UN, and who knows what other “peacemakers” come together in committee to call for “cool-headedness” and “observing international law.” Greece will be alone in the battlefield. What she can, or cannot, do alone will decide the outcome.

Russia has redefined relations with Turkey after a period of severe tensions. Is there a lesson there for Europe?
Actually, it was Erdogan and not Russia who found a way after Russia applied pressure Turkey could not withstand. And, yes, there is a lesson for the Europeans here: Turkey will respond to, and respect, persistent real pressure only. The one problem with this approach though is that Erdogan knows the Europeans won’t go the extra mile like Mr. Putin would in a moment of crisis. The most recent demonstration of this Turkish confidence toward the visibly lame Europeans came with the arrest of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party leadership and the PKK car bomb that followed. The usual rhetorical condemnation of this latest clampdown by some European governments at once drew accusatory comments from the Turkish foreign minister Cavusoglu --only a day or two after Erdogan himself blamed Germany of being “a haven for terrorists.” Mrs. Merkel, as usual, was silent.

What would be then the prudent course for Greece to follow?
Greece has few options, if any. Greek politicians always approached the Turkish threat wrapped in fear and retreat. Joining the European Communities cultivated a fabricated sense of security, which successive Greek governments transformed into the cornerstone of Greek security. This was a dreadful development that promises future disasters.

Right now, Greek “experts” again miss no opportunity to counsel “watching developments carefully,” “building alliances,” and avoiding “public exchanges” with the Turks. They also harp endlessly on European “dis-Union” values and stress that Greece needs to stay focused on them as a way of defending against Turkey (what exactly these values are is still hazy, but ‘focusing’ on them sounds prim and proper and, so, it is considered a worthy aim even if devoid of any practical purpose).

These ideas are fine for the Sunday papers, but the conditions “on the ground” require different measures. It will take a miracle for Greek “leaders” (and the Greek people) to get accustomed to the reality of Turkey bent on aggressive war and kick the country into preparing for the event.
Diplomacy, “high level” contacts, and calm are worthy objectives when writing books and reports, but serve little purpose when a shooting war is looming. Even in her current condition of disintegration, economic impasse, and hostile “friends” and “allies,” Greece needs to replay the period before October 1940. If she can succeed in this feat there may be hope. If she can’t, she will have to suffer the consequences that will be a replay of surrendering Cyprus but at a far larger, and equally permanent, scale.

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